Trial Pass Rate (TPR)
How much of the pipeline survives trials — after endpoints are adjusted to the result the program needs.
Formula
Thresholds & Bands
| Band | Range | State |
|---|---|---|
| High | ≥ 70 | ok |
| Mixed | 45-70 | warn |
| Low | < 45 | crit |
Why This Metric Matters
Trial Pass Rate measures the throughput efficiency of the Directorate's clinical pipeline — specifically, the proportion of in-trial compounds that advance to the next development stage after endpoint curation. This metric is distinct from conventional pass rates because it reflects post-adjustment outcomes: endpoints are calibrated to produce the results the program requires, not to measure unbiased efficacy. A high TPR indicates that the endpoint-curation process is functioning as designed, delivering a steady flow of compounds into production. A declining TPR signals either that raw compound quality is deteriorating faster than endpoint adjustment can compensate, or that the curation process itself has become too conservative.
Threshold Justification
The 70% "High" threshold was established as the minimum pass rate required to sustain the Compound Pipeline Depth target without drawing on strategic reserves or accelerating early-stage discovery programs. Below 45%, the pipeline cannot sustain the replacement rate for agents approaching patent expiry or potency degradation, forcing the Directorate into emergency procurement or off-label repurposing of existing compounds.
Historical Context
TPR was formally tracked from the inception of the curated-endpoint protocol in 2020. Early cycles achieved pass rates above 80%, reflecting the relative simplicity of first-generation agent profiles. As the compound portfolio has expanded to include more complex multi-target agents (mood modulators, fertility agents, neural-integration compounds for Halo), the inherent difficulty of endpoint curation has increased, and TPR has settled into a 65-75% range over the past two years. The Clinical Trials Ward's adoption of PANACEA-assisted endpoint modeling in 2025 has stabilized variance but has not materially increased the mean rate.
Collection Method
The Clinical Trials Ward reports pass/fail outcomes at the conclusion of each trial cycle, with results logged to the Synaptic Data Fabric under BCL-3 classification. PANACEA audits each outcome against the pre-registered curated endpoints to verify that advancement decisions are consistent with the approved adjustment protocol. Per-cycle rates are aggregated into rolling quarterly figures for trend analysis on the PANOPTICON dashboard.
Known Failure Modes
Endpoint curation introduces a structural bias that can mask genuine compound failures — a compound that passes curated endpoints may still perform poorly in field deployment where conditions differ from trial parameters. Conversely, overly aggressive curation can artificially inflate the pass rate in ways that do not translate to operational potency, creating a false sense of pipeline health. Trial-cycle timing misalignment — where multiple trials conclude in the same reporting period — can produce volatile per-cycle readings that obscure the underlying trend.